Miércoles 8 de Febrero de 2012

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Randy Alonso Falcón

Se fue un “octubre negro” para las bolsas, los mercados, los bancos y los consumidores. Cerró con la confirmación del declive económico de Estados Unidos y Europa y el reclamo universal de una nueva arquitectura financiera.
Un nuevo Presidente, el primer afroamericano en la historia, acaba de ser electo con la difícil misión, ente otras herencias que le deja Bush, de hacerle frente a la peor crisis en ocho décadas.
Bolsas abajo

Pese a que la última jornada del mes fue positiva para las bolsas del mundo, octubre culminó con balance en rojo en las principales plazas financieras. New York, Londres, Frankfort, Tokio, Madrid, Sao Paulo, vivieron un período de angustia. Los mercados bursátiles perdieron 5,79 billones de dólares, la mayor cantidad jamás registrada en un solo mes, según cálculos de la agencia de clasificación de riesgos Estándar and Poor´s.

A 79 años del “crash” de 1929, el índice Dow Jones, integrado por las 30 empresas norteamericanas más importantes cotizadas en la Bolsa de Nueva York, cayó en octubre un 14% y perdió más de 1500 puntos, los peores números en 20 años. La Bolsa sólo vivió en todo el mes siete jornadas con cierres positivos.

El índice principal de la Bolsa de Londres, el FTSE-100, registró también su peor mes desde 1987 y el segundo de mayores pérdidas de la historia, con un retroceso del 11%. Marcó además su peor día de pérdidas de la historia, cuando cayó un 9% el pasado 10 de octubre.

El economista británico Justin Urquhart-Stewart, del Seven Investment Management, catalogó a octubre como “un mes de temer” y añadió: “Ha sido como un terremoto en el que los fundamentos mismos del sistema financiero temblaron fuertemente”.

Para los mercados latinoamericanos, el mes fue el más turbulento de la historia. El índice Ibovespa de la Bolsa de Sao Paulo perdió un 24,74% en octubre y acumula pérdidas de 41,68% en el año. El Merval de Buenos Aires cayó un 36,75% en el mes y un 53,02% en lo que va de 2008. El IPC en la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores tuvo una pérdida mensual de 17,85% y acumula un saldo negativo del 30,78% en el año.

Malas nuevas


Las noticias y los números reflejan el impacto global de la crisis. Basta echarles una ojeada:

-El PIB norteamericano cayó un 0,3% en el tercer trimestre del año, mientras la Eurozona confirmó estar en una recesión técnica tras dos trimestres de crecimiento negativo.

-Los gastos en los hogares estadounidenses en septiembre se redujeron un 0,3% con respecto a agosto, la mayor bajada desde el 2004. En Alemania, se registró en el mismo mes una fuerte caída de las ventas minoristas respecto al mes anterior (-2,3%)

-El índice que mide la confianza de los consumidores y de los distintos sectores económicos en la fortaleza de la economía europea alcanzó en octubre los niveles más bajos desde hace 15 años.


Sede de Motorola


-La cantidad de empleos perdidos en EEUU en el 2008 debe superar el millón, una cifra inédita desde el 2005, según augura la firma Challenger, Gray and Christmas. Grandes nombre de la industria y las finanzas como Motorola, BASF y America Express han anunciado en los últimos días la supresión de miles de empleos.

-El déficit de cuenta corriente de los países de la Unión Europea alcanzó los 30 900 millones de euros en el segundo trimestre del año, un 202,9% más que en el mismo período del año anterior, según la Oficina comunitaria de estadística EUROSTAT.

-El dólar canadiense acumuló en octubre la caída mensual más importante desde 1950 respecto al dólar estadounidense. La crisis también ha afectado a la corona islandesa, el dólar australiano, el won de Surcorea, el real brasileño, el peso mexicano y otras monedas que sufren devaluaciones pronunciadas.

-El Banco de Inglaterra calcula que la suma gastada por los bancos centrales y los gobiernos para rescatar a las instituciones financieras afectadas por la crisis asciende a más de 7,7 billones de dólares.


Miradas


Economistas y politólogos se siguen pronunciando sobre la crisis, añadiéndole a la situación algunas dosis de realismo y también incertidumbre y pesar.

“El capitalismo puro no puede evitar estos ciclos económicos, como tamopoco se puede esperar que el mercado se cure por sí mismo”, ha dicho el Premio Nobel de Economía Paul Samuelson.

“Tomará meses para que los mercados crediticios se descongelen, y el mercado accionario se mantendrá muy nervioso por el veloz deterioro de la economía”, predijo el analista Fred Dickson.

“Aunque se haya conseguido que los bancos sobrevivan, sigue habiendo una restricción del crédito, esta crisis de crédito puede empeorar en los próximos dos años. Por tanto, el riesgo para las economías sigue siendo muy alto, incluso aunque se impida el colapso del sistema financiero”, señaló Stephen King, responsable de análisis del banco británico HSBC.

El Premio Nobel de Economía 2008, Paul Krugman, escribió en reciente artículo: “Sospecho que lo que está sucediendo es que la ideología antigobierno de la administración Bush sigue obstaculizando la toma de medidas efectivas. Los sucesos empujaron a Paulson hacia una nacionalización parcial del sistema financieron, pero se niega a utilizar el poder que implica la propiedad.

“Sean cuales fueren las razones de la continua debilidad en materia de políticas, es evidente que la situación no está bajo control. Las cosas siguen viniéndose abajo” –afrimó.

“La UE tiene un largo camino que recorrer hacia la estabilidad de su economía y vamos a necesitar mucho tiempo para devolver la confianza a los mercados”. Dijo por su parte el analista del banco BNP PAribas, Ian Stannard.

“Debemos aprovechar la crisis para analizar los acuerdos globales y las doctrinas imperantes”, subrayó el Premio Nobel Joseph Stiglitz en un panel sobre la crisis convocado por la ONU. “Los mercados financieros de este país (EE.UU) contaminaron al mundo con sus créditos hipotecarios envenenados y causaron una ralentización mundial y ahora debe pagar por arreglar la situación.”

En ese mismo evento, la profesora de relaciones internacionales de un centro superior neoyorkino, Sakiko Fukuda declaró: “Cuando una crisis golpea se trastoca la vida de pobres y marginados y es a quienes les cuesta más recuperarse, incluso, muchas veces nunca vuelven a la posición que tenían antes”.

Aparcando el automóvil


La industria automovilística sigue mostrando los efectos de la situación en la economía real. Ni siquiera el bajón de los precios del petróleo ha traído mejores vientos para el mercado del automóvil.

La venta de autos en Europa cayeron en un 8,2% en septiembre respecto a igual mes del 2007, en el nivel más bajo desde 1998.

La empresa fabricante de carros deportivos Porsche prolongará las vacaciones navideñas de sus empleados debido a la crisis. Su planta central cerca de Stuttgart estará cerrada del 22 de diciembre al 9 de enero.

Daimler, la propietaria del Mercedes Benz, comunicó que interrumpirá por 4 semanas la producción en sus 14 fábricas alemanas, entre fines de diciembre y principios de enero. Más de 100 mil trabajadores estarán en paro forzoso.

Así también andan BMW y Opel, que han reducido la producción por la baja demanda en las últimas semanas.

En Estados Unidos, su tercer fabricante, Chrysler enfrenta el problema más grave en sus 83 años de existencia, con ventas que han bajado un 25% hasta septiembre, la mayor caída entre los principales fabricantes de vehículos.

En el horizonte no se vislumbra ningún modelo de auto o diseño de vanguardia que pueda salvar de la debacle al fabricante de las marcas Chrysler, Dodge y Jeep.

La situación es tan mala que Chrysler LLC planea recortar una cuarta parte de su fuerza de trabajo, y su propietario, Cerberus Capital Manegement LP, están en conversaciones con General Motors Corp. y otras compañías, para su venta.

En Tokio, la compañía automotriz Nissan, con un 44% de participación del grupo francés Renault, anunció una caída de sus beneficios netos de un 40,5% entre abril y septiembre y la supresión de 3 500 empleos en fábricas en Japón, Estados Unidos y España.

La crisis ha alcanzado también a los proveedores de piezas y partes. El grupo alemán Bosch envió en pausa obligatoria a 400 empleados de su fábrica de piezas cerca de Stuttgart. El fabricante germano de neumáticos y componentes Continental anunció que está estudiando posibles recortes.

Mercado del arte en apuros


El mercado del arte se está sintiendo los efectos de la crisis. Los precios a la baja en las subastas de arte el mes pasado en Londres sugieren el fin de varios años de ventas a precios sin precedentes.

Las ventas de arte contemporáneo en las casas subastadoras Christie´s y Sotheby´s generaron una tercera parte menos del dinero que se había pronosticado, y muchos obras no llegaron a venderse.


Arlequín de Pablo Picasso


La pasada semana, Sotheby´s retiró de la puja la obra “Arlequín” de Pablo Picaso, uno de los lotes estelares en la subasta argumentando “razones privadas”.

Christie´s y Sotheby´s arrancan esta semana sus subastas anuales en Nueva York con la duda de si quedan compradores adinerados interesados en llevarse un cuadro por decenas de millones de dólares.

Se dice que entre quienes está vendiendo piezas de sus colecciones está Kathy Fuld, esposa de Richar Fuld, el ex director ejecutivo del quebrado banco Lehman Brothers, quien posee una lujosa casa en Ohio llena de obras de arte.

En Dublín, el famoso grupo rockero U2 veía postergadas sus ilusiones de grabar en un superestudio que construirían en lo alto de una nueva edificación de 120 metros de altura en los muelles de esa ciudad, la cual incluiría también viviendas, un hotel y un mirador.

La obra, que sería la edificación más alta del país, se ha convertido en la última víctima irlandesa de la crisis financiera mundial. La Autoridad de Desarrollo de Muelles de Dublín anunció la posposición del proyecto constructivo por al menos 12 meses.

Engaño


El Secretario del Tesoro abrió el período de compra de acciones por parte del gobierno en instituciones bancarias privadas de Estados Unidos. Para tal propósito se ha destinado 250 mil millones de dólares del gigantesco plan de rescate aprobado por el Congreso. Las instituciones financieras tendrán hasta el 14 de noviembre para inscribirse, y tras una reticencia inicial ya son cerca de 1800 las instituciones que han solicitado el apoyo estatal..

El objetivo anunciado de la medida es descongelar los préstamos de los bancos. Sin embargo, The Washington Post denunciaba el pasado jueves que los bancos están en camino de usar más de la mitad de los fondos recibidos del gobierno, unos 163 mil millones de dólares, para pagar dividendos a sus accionistas y no para reanudar los créditos. Según el periódico capitalino, esto ocurrirá “con permiso del Gobierno a lo largo de los próximos tres años”.

A su vez, The Wall Street Journal reveló que las grandes entidades financieras que están recibiendo fondos públicos para equilibrar sus cuestas, deben cerca de 40 mil millones de dólares a sus ejecutivos en concepto de salarios y pensiones diferidas.

Según el diario de información económica, en algunos casos la deuda que esas firmas tienen con sus ejecutivos supera el monto de las pensiones que le deben a toda la plantilla. Goldman Sachs, por ejemplo, adeuda 11 800 millones de dólares a sus ejecutivos y le debe 399 millones en pensiones a toda la plantilla.

El débito “dorado” de J.P Morgan Chase con sus ejecutivos asciende a unos 8 200 millones de dólares y Morgan Stanley le “debe” a los suyos cerca de 12 mil millones.

Numerosos críticos del plan Paulson señalan que pese a que el gobierno comprará acciones preferentes de los bancos no tendrá votos en sus decisiones ni podrá cambiar a los fallidos directivos. Por el contrario, el Tesoro ha dado también luz verde a los bancos más poderosos para usar el dinero que reciban por el plan de rescate para comprar bancos en una situación financiera más precaria. El gobierno –consideran no pocos- está financiando la consolidación monopólica del sistema bancario, eligiendo por su cuenta a ganadores y perdedores.

Lástima


Los medios de comunicación no dejan de mirar la crisis desde lo alto de la clase empresarial y la aristocracia financiera. Cualquiera se rasgaría de dolor por lo que “sufre” los poderosos con la zozobra financiera.

-Los mimados empleados de la metrópoli financiera estadounidense se preparan para celebrar unas fiestas novideñas más modestas, según The New York Times. En vez de champagne y caviar, en muchos lugares ahora habrá vinos y hamburguesas, según el periódico. Algunas empresas incluso suspenderán por completo los festejos de fin de año. “Todo el mundo está conciente que no deberíamos celebrar a lo grande si está ardiendo Roma”, dijo un organizador de festejos.

-La Reina Isabel II, una de las mujeres más ricas del mundo, ha perdido cerca de 37 millones de libras al depreciarse sus inversiones en la Bolsa, dice el diario Daily Express. La monarca abrirá por primera vez al público los jardines del Palacio de Buckingham para financiar su mantenimiento.

-Dos de los mayores magnates de Colombia, Luis Carlos Sarmiento y Julio Mario Santo Domingo, entre las 200 fortunas más grandes del mundo, han visto caer en las bolsas sus grupos empresariales y sus acciones en unos 3 800 millones de dólares en conjunto. Santo Domingo era duelo de la cervecera Bavaria que vendió a la multinacional cervecera sudafricana SABMiller. Sarmientos comanda el conglomerado bancario y financiero Grupo Aval. Sus patrimonios siguen siendo multimillonarios.

¿Cuál arquitectura?


Casi todos hablan de la necesidad de una nueva arquitectura financiera internacional; pero pocos saben cómo construirla.

Los países europeos, fuertemente golpeados por la crisis han encabezado la cruzada para cambiar las reglas, y forzaron a Washington a convocar una Cumbre del G20 para discutir el tema. En su visita a la Casa Blanca el pasado 18 de octubre, en unión del Presidente de la Comisión Europea José Manuel Durao Barroso, el presidente francés Nicolas Sarkozy le expresó a Bush que tenía el mandato de los 27 países de la UE de “encontrar una solución correspondiente” y “emprender una revisión a fondo del sistema financiero internacional y de los principios básicos del capitalismo mundial”.

Ello supone un reto a los pilares de Bretton Woods y al papel egocéntrico de EE.UU en la economía y las finanzas mundiales.

Washington acogerá la cita el próximo 15 de noviembre en el National Building Museum. El FMI y el Banco Mundial escoltarán a Bush en defensa de sus intereses, Europa, dividida por las diferencias franco alemanas, tratará de buscan consensos. España intenta aún ser invitada al cónclave. China, India, Brasil, Sudáfrica y otros países emergentes intentarán buscar caminos que no descarguen más aún el peso de la crisis en el mundo pobre.

En su reciente visita a La Habana, el mandatario brasileño Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva precisó al respecto: “La especulación no se dio en África, no se dio en América Latina, se dio exactamente en Estados Unidos y fuertemente en la Unión Europea, y por lo tanto los países ricos no puede permitirse eludir responsabilidades y que los países pobre paguen una vez más la cuenta”.

Muchos pronunciamientos ha habido sobre el entierro de Bretton Woods, pero existe un grave vacío de ideas sobre el nuevo modelo de relaciones financieras internacionales que debe regir. Nadie propone el revolcón necesario. La Casa Blanca insiste en que basta una reforma del sistema de mercado liberal. Así lo repite Bush en su intento de preservar un dominio norteamericana cada vez más desconocido.

Críticas


Creciente es el número de los que miran con recelo la cita de Washington. Y es que seán más los que estén fuera que dentro del conciliábulo que discutirá la crisis. Y hay poca confianza en una cita donde el FMI y el Banco Mundial tendrán un papel activo.

“Sería la cosa más absurda seguir con quienes nos han llevado hoy a esta crisis financiera mundial. Creo que es ya tiempo de dar el descanso eterno a los acuerdos de Bretton Woods, porque ya estamos en otro mundo”, declaró a Prensa Latina el Presidente de la Asamblea

General de la ONU, el nicaragüense Miguel D´Escoto, quien también apuntó: “…hay demasiado en juego para que se adopten a puerta cerrada soluciones a media y arreglos precipitados (…)La comunidad internacional tiene la responsabilidad y la oportunidad de identificar medidas a largo plazo que vengan más allá de proteger a los bancos, estabilizar los mercados de créditos y reconfortar a los grandes inversores”.

La Asamblea General de la ONU convocará a un debate de alto nivel sobre el tema para principios de 2009 y para ello designó un equipo integrado por seis eminentes economistas, lidereados por el Premio Nobel Joseph Stiglitz, que deberá presentar sus recomendaciones a la Conferencia.

En Zulia, Hugo Chávez, rechazó el sábado los intentos de fortalecer el papel del Fondo Monetario Internacional: “…Merkel y Brown pidieron más implicación a los países emergentes para solucionar la crisis y esperan sobre todo de China y los países petroleros un aumento de sus aportaciones al FMI. ¡Qué inmoralidad!

“Es decir que países como China y como los petroleros que hemos enfrentado amenazas, invasiones, sabotajes y golpes de Estado, tenemos que aportar recursos para que ellos sigan auxiliando a los ricos del mundo. ¡Qué ionmoralidad!”, expresó el Jefe de Estado venezolano.

Ese mismo día, en su alocución radial semanal, el Presidente ecuatoriano Rafael Correa señaló en diferentes momentos: “Existen países que creen en parchar el sistema y reformar al Fondo Monetario Internacional y el Banco Mundial, pero otros quieren aprovechar la coyuntura para construir nuestra propia arquitectura financiera regional”. En alusión al FMI y al BM señaló: “…eso no hay que rescatarlo, hay que botarlo al tacho de la basura…ellos son los culpables del gran desastre de los pueblos latinoamericanos”.

Correa precisó que el eje de la nueva arquitectura financiera regional es el Banco del Sur y una moneda común que reemplace al dólar y el euro en las transacciones que realicen los países de la región.

Marx redimido




El extraordinario pensador que desde “El Capital” previno que “En un sistema de producción en que toda la trama del proceso de reproducción descansa sobre el crédito, cuando éste cesa … tiene que producirse inmediatamente una crisis, una demanda violenta y en tropel de medios de pago. Por eso, a primera vista, la crisis aparece como una simple crisis de crédito y de dinero… Pero, al lado de esto, hay una masa inmensa de estas letras que sólo representan negocios de especulación, que ahora se ponen al desnudo y explotan como pompas de jabón…”, está de vuelta en librerías, universidades y museos, en razón de la búsqueda de explicaciones a la crisis financiera mundial.

Durante la Feria del Libro de Frankfurt era noticia el volumen de ventas alcanzado por la obra escrita en 1867. Según la editorial berlinesa Karl-Dietz, que publica los textos de Marx y Federico Engels, las ventas de “El Capital” se han triplicado en el 2008 y siguen llegando pedidos para las entregas en diciembre.

En Londres, Jason Craig, director de ventas digitales y online de la editorial Penguin en el Reino Unido, aseguró a BBC Mundo que las ventas de "El Manifiesto Comunista" entre mayo y octubre de 2008 aumentaron un 900% comparado con el año pasado.

Entretanto, 31 universidades alemanas han recuperado en sus programas la obra cumbre de Marx. El texto es leído en las aulas por los profesores y debatido por los estudiantes. Los salones de clases donde se analiza “El Capital” se han llenado, según testificó a la agencia ANSA el profesor de Filosofía de la Universidad de Friburgo Wolfgan Fritz Haug. “Dejamos por mucho tiempo a Marx en los estantes”, señaló.

El número de visitantes a la localidad alemana de Tréveris donde nació Karl Marx en 1818 se ha disparado este año a 40.000. El responsable del museo dedicado a este ilustre ciudadano dijo a la BBC que ha perdido la cuenta de las veces en que ha escuchado a los visitantes decir que, después de todo, Marx tenía razón.
Así también lo ha dicho recientemente el escritor portugués José Saramago al remarcar que Marx “nunca tuvo tanta razón como ahora” en medio de una crisis del sistema capitalista de la que “las peores consecuencias aún no se han manifestado”.

Apuesta


Las bolsas y los mercados, los apostadores y las calificadoras de riesgo, casi todos daban por seguro el triunfo de Barack Obama en la contienda presidencial norteamericana. La crisis económica era el factor decisivo para el triunfo del demócrata.

Owen Fitzpatrick, del principal banco germano Deutsche Bank, auguraba: “Visto el avance de Obama en los sondeos, el nombre del próximo presidente es bastante claro”. Los analistas de IHS Global auguraban un triunfo del demócrata por 53,1% contra un 46,9% de su adversario, algo que valoraron como “poco sorprendente, vista la debilidad de la economía”
Un analista de Standard and Poor´s, Sam Stovall, se remitió a la historia para recorder que en cinco de las seis ocasiones, desde la Gran Depresión, en que el mercado ha bajado entre el agosto y octubre previos a una elección, el partido en el poder ha salido derrotado. La única excepción fue la reelección de Dwigth Eisenhower en 1956.

Las bolsas en todo el mundo tuvieron ganancias este martes en vísperas de la decisión electoral. “La reacción de los mercados bursátiles dependerá de la decisiva victoria por la presidencia, e igualmente de la Cámara y el Senado”, había prevenido David Keeble, un analista de Wall Street. “Pensamos que una decisiva victoria de los demócratas en el Senado, así como el triunfo para el senador Obama (…) estimularán el apetito por el riesgo”.

Un 62 por ciento de los votantes calificó a la economía como su principal preocupación en estos comicios, en comparación al 10 por ciento que nombró la guerra en Irak y otro 9 por ciento que priorizó el terrorismo o el seguro de salud, según sondeos del canal estadounidense de noticias CNN.Tales sentimientos condujeron a Barack Obama a proclamarse como el 44 Presidente de los Estados Unidos y el primer afronorteamericano en posicionarse en la Casa Blanca.

Para algunos en Wall Street la noticia, aunque esperada, no ha sido feliz. Obama ha prometido incrementar los impuestos a los más ricos. “Si Obama gana con una ventaja considerable puedo asegurar que el miércoles será un día muy difícil”, predice el analista Mace Silvestre.

Obama heredará una aguda recesión y un país en ascuas por las guerras. Como señaló recientemente Fidel: “ El sistema capitalista desarrollado, cuyo máximo exponente es el país de naturaleza privilegiada adonde el hombre blanco europeo llevó sus ideas, sus sueños y sus ambiciones, se encuentra hoy en plena crisis. No es la habitual cada cierto número de años, ni siquiera la traumática de los años treinta, sino la peor de todas desde que el mundo siguió ese modelo de crecimiento y desarrollo”. Esperemos a ver los acontecimientos.


Fuentes: Agencias de Noticias, BBC, TVE, Financial Times, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Expansión, El Economista, Democracy Now.

Fecha: 06/11/2008
Fuente: Cuba Debate
comentarios Hay 19 comentarios

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